New approach for measuring issue ownership shows Republican Party owns the economy, Democratic Party owns climate change
by Lucas Pyle (Class of 2021)
For the first time since 2011, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. In the first 60 days of unified control, the Democratic Party has passed a 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill to tackle the economic impacts of the coronavirus epidemic. President Biden has also issued executive orders to reverse policies of the previous administration on immigration, climate, and race. Republicans overwhelmingly opposed the stimulus bill, with every single Congressional Republican voting against this legislation.
With more bills soon to be introduced and voted on in Congress, both parties will continue to make their claims to voters that they handle important issues better than the opposition. By passing or blocking legislation, the Democratic and Republican parties will look to gain the public’s trust on certain issues and claim ownership of that issue. The public’s perception of which party handles the most pressing issues the best could have major effects on voter choice and election results for 2022. Analyzing issue ownership can therefore give insight into which issues each party must focus on to gain people’s support in the next election.
In the study of public opinion, analyzing the topic of issue ownership seeks to answer the following question: Which political parties, in the eyes of the American people, own which political issues? With the growing polarization of American politics, standard methods of measuring views on which party handles which issue the best fail to break through this increased partisan divide. Standard methods of analyzing issue ownership give respondents a list of relevant topics and ask them which party they believe handles that issue the best. This allows for unchecked expressive responding and partisan cheerleading. Respondents have the ability to back their own party on every issue just as a way to demonstrate support for their side.
This past election, my colleague Ryan Shaffer and I introduced a new method to study issue ownership in a Tufts University poll. For this method, respondents were given a list of issues: the economy, health care, coronavirus, climate, crime and safety, immigration, racial and ethnic inequalities, and Supreme Court nominations. They were then asked to assign one to three issues to each political party to indicate which party handled those issues the best. This method sought to break through partisan backing by forcing respondents to prioritize issues and consider which issue/s the opposing party handled well. The results showed that this new measure of issue ownership decreased the effects of partisan cheerleading seen in the standard measure. Clear patterns emerged, with people most likely to select the economy and crime as issues the Republican Party handles best, and climate and racial inequalities as issues the Democratic Party handles best.
Further data on this new measure of issue ownership demonstrates the effectiveness of the measure and backs up the results from November. A poll fielded by Data for Progress in February included this new method of analyzing which issues each political party owns. As in November, respondents were asked to assign one to three issues for the Democratic Party, and one to three issues for the Republican Party. Respondents were given eight issues to choose from, with “Upholding democracy” replacing “Supreme Court nominations’’ from the survey in November. The poll included 1,408 adult respondents recruited by Lucid and the results were weighted to be nationally representative.
The overall results show that the Republican Party has majority ownership of the economy and a plurality ownership of crime and safety and immigration. Around 56% of Americans select the economy as one issue that the Republican Party handles best, with 46% selecting crime and safety and 42% selecting immigration for the GOP. The results also show that the Democratic Party has majority ownership of climate, with about 50% of Americans selecting climate as an issue the Democrats handle best. On health care, coronavirus, and racial and ethnic inequalities, the Democratic Party has a plurality ownership of these issues (40%, 44%, and 42%). Upholding
democracy is the one issue that is not selected at the highest rate (46%).
When looking at Democrats and Republicans, the results show a clear consensus on which issues partisans can agree that one party handles best. Republicans and Democrats agree that the Republican Party handles the economy and crime and safety the best. For Republicans, 75% select the economy as an issue their party handles best, with 47% selecting crime and safety. Democrats agree, with 40% selecting the economy for the Republican Party and 45% selecting crime and safety as an issue the GOP handles best. On the flip side, partisans on both sides agree that the Democratic Party handles climate change the best. 41% of Democrats select climate change for their party, with 65% of Republicans selecting this issue as one the Democratic Party handles better than the Republican Party.
To further analyze the data and predict which party someone would select an issue for, I ran a multinomial regression and created predicted probabilities. I ran a multinomial regression because the dependent variable (each issue) had different categorical responses with no particular order. I also used a regression to control for different variables besides party identification (race, education, age, and gender) to make sure there were no underlying variables affecting the data. These results show which issues Democrats and Republicans believe their party handles best, and which issues they are more likely to concede to the other party. Republicans have a high predicted probability of choosing the economy (85%), crime and safety (53%), and immigration (45%) as issues their party handles best. They also have a high predicted probability of choosing climate (74%) and racial inequalities (48%) as issues the Democratic Party handles best. For Democrats, they have a high predicted probability of selecting the coronavirus (58%), climate (55%), and health care (47%) as issues their party handles best. They also have a high predicted probability of selecting the economy (59%) and crime (56%) as issues the Republican Party handles best.
While the results from the Data For Progress poll match up with the results from the fall, one interesting change can be seen when looking at Democrats and the issue of racial inequalities. In the fall, the data showed that Democrats had a high predicted probability of selecting racial inequalities as an issue their party handled best, with Republicans agreeing. However, the results from this poll show that Democrats are more likely not to select this issue than to select it for their party. This is an interesting change in Democrats’ perceptions of their own party, especially with the rise in racist attacks on Asian-Americans. One reason could be that Democrats believe their party is best at handling the inequalities of certain racial groups and not others. Another reason might be that Democrats are prioritizing other issues more than they did November.
These results on issue ownership could give each party an insight into which issues they should focus on to gain support in the upcoming election. Democrats have ownership of the coronavirus epidemic with a majority of Democrats (60%) and a plurality of Independents (40%) selecting this issue as one the Democrats handle best. With the passing of the Covid relief bill and the country on pace to administer 200 million doses of the vaccine before May, Democrats would be smart to reinforce the idea that they have handled this crisis well. While the Republican Party has issue ownership of the economy, it might be hard to use this issue to gain support if the Democrats continue to provide economic and medical relief that further combats the coronavirus epidemic. This might lead the Republican Party to focus on immigration. A majority of Republicans (55%) select this issue for their party, while a plurality of Independents choose this issue for the GOP (39%). With an increased number of migrants coming to the Southern border, the Republican Party will look to renew national focus on immigration in an attempt to gain more votes in 2022.
