Public opinion on immigration is more nuanced than the positions espoused by party elites
By Danielle Piccoli (Class of ’23) and Aadhya Shivakumar (Class of ‘22)
Over the past decade, immigration has been one of the most hotly debated issues. In the 2016 Republican primary, Donald Trump gained traction as he utilized aggressive rhetoric and proposed hardline policies. He promised to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, vowing “no amnesty,” and to create an “impenetrable, beautiful” border wall along the United States-Mexico border. Trump capitalized on racial anxieties throughout the United States, cementing immigration as a salient issue. Going into the 2020 presidential election, Trump continued to use immigration as a means to instil fear, while Joe Biden promised to undo Trump’s policies. Despite Biden’s proposed immigration initiatives, such as publishing new guidelines to refocus ICE immigrant arrest policies, the percent of adults who disapproved of his handling of immigration grew from 39 percent when he took office to 59 percent in late September, demonstrating a disconnect between public opinion and political action.
We turned to the Cooperative Election Study (CES) surveys from 2016 and 2020 to analyze how public opinion has shifted on immigration even during a short period of time. We looked at Democratic and Republican support for granting legal status to immigrants and increasing the number of border patrols to see if public opinion echoed the sentiments of Democratic and Republican political elites.
The first item we looked at was one where respondents were asked whether they support or oppose increasing the number of border patrols on the U.S.-Mexico border. We find that 74% of Republican respondents were in favor of increasing border patrols in 2016, as compared to 90% in 2020. While this increase in support is pretty significant when considering how short the period of time was over which it occurred, it is also unsurprising given the policies enacted by then-President Donald Trump over the course of his presidency. Trump ordered 15,000 new border patrol agents in 2019, but he was eventually unsuccessful in increasing the number of agents. However, between the President and Republican Party elites espousing anti-immigration ideas and legislating on the issue, and all the rhetoric surrounding the US-Mexico border, it is very possible that the increased salience of the topic led to an increase in support by Republican respondents.
It is interesting to note that 36% of Democratic respondents supported the policy in 2016, as compared to 38% in 2020. The lack of change in opinion among Democrats in 2016 and 2020 stands in sharp contrast to that of Republicans; while Republican support increased considerably, Democratic support was unmoved. This is intriguing given how anti-immigration policy and the US-Mexico border were pillars of Trump’s platform. One might therefore expect Democrats to show an increased opposition towards the issue in 2020; However, while the US-Mexico border wall was a very salient policy, increasing border patrols may not have been associated as strongly with Trump’s agenda; this could be an explanation for a lack of heightened opposition among Democratic respondents. Another potential reason could simply be that some Democrats are in agreement with Republicans that there needs to be increased border security.
Next we examined support for granting legal status to illegal immigrants who have paid taxes and held jobs for at least 3 years, and not been convicted of a felony.
In 2016, 72% of Democrats agreed with this statement. In 2020, 88% of Democrats agreed with this statement. It is no surprise that Democrats increased support for this proposal — over the past few years, especially since Trump’s attempts to terminate DACA, Democrats have prioritized providing a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants. This increase in support can be seen through Senate Democrats’ effort to include “lawful permanent status for qualified immigrants” in the proposed federal budget resolution for the 2022 fiscal year.
In 2016, 35% of Republicans agreed with this statement. In 2020, 46% of Republicans agreed with this statement. This increase in support for granting legal status to undocumented immigrants is surprising. Between 2016 and 2020, conservatives adopted harsh rhetoric regarding immigration, echoing President Trump’s emphasis on the threat of undocumented immigrants. For example, Ted Cruz said that the Senate should be considering new laws to crack down on undocumented immigrants while increaseing the number of border patrol agents and improving technology along the border. Trump’s base endorsed Trump’s attacks against undocumented immigrants, validating his claims through blaming undocumented immigrants for stolen jobs. However, Republican respondents’ increased support for the policy contradicts this hardline approach to immigration.
Our findings are consistent with data that show an increased support for granting legal status to undocumented immigrants among both Republicans and Democrats. Additionally, while there is a lack of research on policies concerning border patrol agents, the increase in favorability among Republicans supports our hypothesis. Republican respondents seem to reflect a shift in public sentiment surrounding immigration polices during the Trump presidency, as they increased support for both a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and increaasing the number of border patrols at the U.S.-Mexico border. While these policies are not inherently contradictory, it is interesting to note that the majority of Republican respondents support policies that both encourage and discourage immigration. Democratic respondents’ support for granting legal status to undocumented immigrants is in line with our expections and rhetoric by party elites, however, their lack of strong opposition to a Trumpian border patrol policy is surprising given the anti-Trump sentiment over the past four years. It is interesting to note that across party lines, 33% of respondents support both increasing border patrols and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Therefore, through our analysis, it is clear that the public has much more mixed views on immigration than their Democratic or Republican elected officials.
