Those Who Believe in QAnon Conspiracies Are More Racially Diverse Than You Might Think

by Josh Hochberg (Class of 2022)

On January 6, 2021, a mob of far-right extremists stormed the Capitol hoping to overturn the results of the 2020 election, follow the orders of the then-President, and kill all those who stood in their way. Leading the insurrection were QAnon conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, followed by a mob of like-minded individuals.

To those familiar with recent developments on the far right, the alliance between QAnon theorists and white supremacists is to be expected. They use the same social media sites and communication platforms (where they openly planned the insurrection). Both groups were major supporters of Donald Trump, who refused to denounce their cult-like following of him; Trump praised QAnon supporters as “people that love our country” and declined to denounce white supremacists when given the opportunity at the first 2020 Presidential debate. In addition, QAnon and white supremacists are united by their shared antisemitic ideology, and many far-right and racist militia groups espouse QAnon conspiracies.

Despite these commonalities, little is known about the demographic composition of those who believe in QAnon conspiracy theories. This article seeks to answer just that. In September, an online survey sponsored by ISD and Luminate was fielded on a sample of 4,057 American adults recruited from the Lucid panel, with post-stratification weights applied to ensure the sample is representative on age, gender, education, race, and interaction of education and race. Respondents were asked a range of questions relating to QAnon, including their level of agreement with eight conspiracy theories either initiated or supported by QAnon.

To ensure the subsequent analysis focuses on those who believe in conspiracy theories originated by QAnon, and not those who just believe in theories that QAnon supports but did not create, only those who indicated that at least one of the four conspiracy theories initiated by QAnon is true and that they heard of the theory before the survey were coded as QAnon believers; the rest of the respondents were coded as nonbelievers. The four conspiracy theories initiated by QAnon in the survey were:

1. Donald Trump is secretly preparing a mass arrest of thousands of government officials and celebrities.

2. The investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller was not actually about Russian interference in the 2016 election. It was actually a secret investigation, ordered by Donald Trump, into a child sex-trafficking network.

3. Celebrities harvest the chemical adrenochrome from children’s bodies and use it as a drug.

4. Democratic politicians and Hollywood stars are part of a global network that tortures and sexually abuses children in Satanic rituals.

As shown in the figure above, Black and Hispanic respondents were significantly more likely to believe in at least one of the four conspiracies than White respondents. 25% of Hispanic and 23% of Black respondents are believers compared to 18% of White respondents. The differences in proportions between White and Black respondents, as well as White and Hispanic respondents, are statistically significant. Overall, 19% of respondents are believers, and 81% are nonbelievers.

That Black and Hispanic respondents were more likely to believe in at least one of the four conspiracies than White respondents is apparent when comparing those who aren’t “believers” to those who are “nonbelievers.” Whereas 73% of nonbelievers are White, only 68% of believers are White. Black respondents make up 12% of believers but 9% of nonbelievers, and Hispanic respondents compose 13% of believers but less than 9% of nonbelievers. All of these differences are statistically significant.

To those unfamiliar with research on conspiracy theories, these findings may be surprising. How is it possible that racial minorities are more likely to believe in far-right conspiracy theories originated by QAnon, whose adherents are often aligned with white supremacists? To experts on conspiracy theories, however, these results fit a pattern found in many other studies.

A long line of medical and social science research has found that Black and Hispanic Americans are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than White Americans, and similar trends are observable in Europe. Historical and present inequalities and discrimination can explain the propensity people of color’s propensity to believe in conspiracy theories, especially antigovernmental conspiracies; consider that Black Americans have long been targeted by the government, from slavery and the infamous Tuskegee Syphilis Study to the present-day devaluation of black assets and police brutality. Indeed, psychologists have found that feelings of powerlessness, hostility, and being disadvantaged contribute to minorities’ beliefs in conspiracy theories.

Interestingly, despite being more likely to believe QAnon conspiracies, racial minorities are significantly less likely to have heard of QAnon than White respondents; 47% of White respondents read and heard “a little” or “a lot” about QAnon, compared to 35% of Black and 38% of Hispanic respondents. Additionally, minority respondents were no more likely to have a favorable view of QAnon than White respondents.

As is the case with nearly all research relating to conspiracies, the external validity of these findings is constrained by a rather small sample size. Though the survey was conducted with more than 4,000 respondents, the sample sizes for both Black and Hispanic Americans were approximately 400. However, the small sizes of these subsamples are still much larger than the full samples of many other academic studies on conspiracy theories.

If asked to think of a QAnon supporter, most Americans would likely imagine a white person. This, of course, is for good reason. The most high-profile backers of QAnon are white (see Rep. Lauren Boebert, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Jake Angeli, aka the “QAnon Shaman”), and an open alliance has been formed between many white supremacists and QAnon supporters.

However, my research reveals that those who believe in QAnon’s conspiracies are not as racially homogenous as many might think. In actuality, those who believe in QAnon conspiracies are more racially diverse than those who do not, and Black and Hispanic minorities are more likely to believe in QAnon theories than White Americans. These findings suggest that while some QAnon supporters may be leaving the movement, the theories it touted are deeply embedded in the minds of a diverse population.