Tufts Public Opinion Lab national pre-election poll shows a close race for U.S. House

With less than two weeks to go before the 2022 midterm elections, a new national poll from the Tufts University Public Opinion Lab shows a tight race for U.S. House of Representatives. Among likely voters in the poll, Democrats were narrowly preferred with 48% of the vote compared to 47% for Republican House candidates. However, that difference is well within the poll’s margin of error which is 3.8 points.

Dynamic crosstabs for the poll can be found by following this link.

The Tufts Public Opinion Lab poll was fielded online with panelists recruited from Lucid. The poll was fielded on October 25th — 27th, 2022. The total sample size for the poll is 1,337 American adult respondents. Post-stratification weights were implemented to make the sample nationally representative of American adults by gender, age, region, education, race, (the interaction of education and race), home ownership status, and 2020 presidential vote. Adult population targets defined using the most recent 5-year American Community Survey. We then applied a probabilistic likely voter model to estimate each respondent’s probability of voting. These probabilistic likely voter weights imply a sample of 642 likely voters. For more on our likely voter model, see this article. The poll is directed by Brian Schaffner and designed by students who are part of the lab’s seminar, “Polling the 2022 Election.”